"10th Anniversary" of Devaluation - Is another one expected?

Today marks the 10th anniversary of one of the most important events in the economy of Azerbaijan - the devaluation of 2015.
Yeniavaz.com reports that on February 21, 2015, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan reduced the exchange rate of the manat against the dollar from 1.05 manat to 1.55 manat. At the end of the same year, the country experienced a second devaluation, and the manat lost value against the dollar from 1.55 to 1.7 manat.
But wonder if Azerbaijan is expecting another devaluation in 10 years? Will the manat exchange rate remain stable in the coming periods or will another devaluation occur?
In an interview with Yeniavaz.com on this issue, economist expert Allahverdi Aydin said that whether a new devaluation will occur will depend on the changes taking place in the local and global economy:
“The foreign exchange reserves of the State Oil Fund exceeded $60 billion at the beginning of 2025. The reserves of the Central Bank approached approximately $11 billion. These reserves give the Central Bank ample opportunities to support the manat exchange rate. At the same time, oil and natural gas prices on the world market are high, which ensures a large influx of foreign currency into Azerbaijan. The excess of exports over imports, that is, a positive balance of foreign trade, also helps maintain the manat exchange rate. The things we have listed reduce the likelihood of a new devaluation. However, the processes taking place in the world, especially the policy of the new US President Donald Trump to reduce energy prices, increase the risk of a sharp decline in oil prices.”

Allahverdi Aydin

The expert noted that a drop in oil prices below $40 could lead to a serious reduction in the inflow of foreign currency into Azerbaijan:
"Therefore, a sharp drop in oil prices could put pressure on the manat. Another reason for the pressure on the manat is the increase in government spending in recent years. As you know, in 2025, the government increased spending on defense and the social sphere. If the budget deficit is larger than planned, the government will have to either use foreign exchange reserves or resort to a new devaluation to reduce it. Another point is that there is high inflation in the countries that are Azerbaijan's main trading partners. As a result, since the manat remains stable, the country remains exposed to imported inflation. "Rising inflation increases the demand for dollars."
So, if a new devaluation occurs in Azerbaijan, what negative or positive consequences could it have for the economy?
The expert economist noted that if a new devaluation occurs, it will primarily have a negative impact on the standard of living of the population:
"Devaluation will increase inflation. People who receive salaries and pensions in manats will be able to buy fewer goods, since their money is devalued. This will also have serious consequences for the financial and banking sector. In this case, the positive side of devaluation may be an increase in exports. Devaluation may lead to the revival of local production."

Elnur Ali